Relying on Stealthy Aircraft Too Much is a Mistake
Counter steath tech is advancing more rapidly that stealth tech.
When the F-117 Nighthawk was first revealed to the world in 1990 during the Gulf War, it was presented at this near invisible plane that could with ease penetrate Iraqi airspace and take out high value systems, including air defense systems. While it was used in this way, effective use of the F-117 involved very detailed planning that avoided/skirted Iraqi air defense systems. In other words, flying it directly into the teeth of Iraqi air defenses would end up getting it shot done. One study even showed that a conventional fighter using the same level of care to skirt radar could have achieved similar results.
Since then the United States, and other advanced nations have moved forward with advancing stealth technology, but they have also moved even more rapidly to advance counter-stealth technology.
Examples of counter-stealth technology include infrared sensors, over the horizon radars, quantum radar (sometime in future), passive radar, multistatic radar and super powerful radars that pump out so much energy the amount of energy reflected can be detected. China is even deploying 150 meter diameter lighter than air drone use telescope enhanced infrared sensors to detect the exhaust plume of a stealth plane from over 1000 miles away.
In others words, with counter-stealth tech advancing more quickly that stealth technology, any advantage existing stealth planes have is bound to diminish as they age.
Case and point, the F-35 is supposed to be in operation until at least 2050. But by that time advances in detection will have significantly reduced any advantages the F-35’s stealth give it.
And a major breakthrough in anti-stealth technology could pretty much destroy the stealth advantage. While no such breakthrough appears to be pending, such advances can happen unexpectedly.
Stealth aircraft cost more to build and they generally will not be as good as non-stealthy aircraft when it comes to overall aerodynamic performance and ability to carry large payloads. At nearly 70,000 lbs max takeoff weight, the F-35 is the heaviest single engine plane in world, yet it can only carry four small 250 lb. diameter bombs while maintaining its stealth profile. The F-16 is not a stealth plane, but at about half the weight, it can carry eight small 250 lb. small diameter bombs or four 2,000 lb. bombs. It can also carry eight 500 lb. bombs.
Bottomline, we pay a very large premium for stealth aircraft and have gotten very limited use from them to date. This does not mean we should abandon stealth tech and if the premium paid for it is reasonable, it makes sense. But given trends that point to stealth becoming less of an advantage going forward, putting all our eggs in the stealth basket does not make sense.
F47 anyone?